I’m going to unashamedly agree with the consensus on other sites such as LetsRun.com, that last weekend might well prove to be the weekend that marathon running hit a new level.
Sure, it was back in September that Haile Gebrselassie made history by running under 2:04′, but there was no great charge of runners immediately after that hitting that sort of time. That is, until last weekend.
It is understandable that this delay should have occurred. Haile’s performance was effectively a time trial, rather than an out and out race (despite the best efforts of James Kwambai), which gives you an edge when setting even paced record attempts. It also happened at the tail end of the season, as other marathoners might be winding down their season before putting in the base miles to prepare for the spring marathon season. Thus, though Haile’s world record broke a massive psychological barrier, it was always going to be some months before the effects would be witnessed.
As said above, those effects were witnessed last weekend. Whereas 2:06′, or 2:05′ would once have been very hard to achieve and would have all but ensured victory, the mental barrier has been lowered and the top marathoners, especially the Kenyans, are now aiming for 2:04′ (or better). And not just Sammy Wanjiru, the Beijing Olympic champion, who has stated that he feels sub-two hours within five years is a possibility. Relatively unknown runners are pulling out some hitherto unexpectedly fast times.
Sunday’s Rotterdam Marathon, was won by Duncan Kibet in the 2:04′27″, the third fastest time ever. In second place was the man who pushed Haile, James Kwambai, also in 2:04′27″. Only Haile has run faster. Twice. Third and fourth were Abel Kirui and Patrick Makau in 2:05′04″ (PB) and 2:06′14″ (debut). Four other runners ran under 2:10′. Seven of the top eight got PBs, and only one wasn’t Kenyan (he was Ethiopian). The first European was Spain’s Ignacio Carcares who PB’d in 2:12′40″ and finished eleventh. Though the weather was perfect and Rotterdam is a fast course, this was not considered to be a particularly high quality field. It is an IAAF Silver Label race, not a Major, like Boston, or London which occur later this month.
At roughly the same time, in Paris, Vincent Kipruto broke the course record there to win in 2:05′47″. Five others finished under 2:07′ (equalling a record set in London), with eleven running under 2:09′ (a new record). For seven of the top ten, their times were PBs. The Marathon de Paris is an IAAF Gold Label race, but could still be considered a ‘B’ marathon, yet it witnessed what could arguably be considered the fastest marathon ever (in terms of top ten finishing times).
Before last weekend, 2009’s top two times were Haile’s 2:05′29″ from Dubai, and Benjamin Kolum Kiptoo’s 2:07′17″ from Roma. They now occupy positions four and twelve. Of the eleven runners to finish in 2:06’something this year, ten happened last weekend.
And the season is only just beginning. Boston and London are this month, and both are boasting quality line-ups. Don’t expect any records from Boston, as the course is tough, but London is fast and has the faster line-up. In August, the world championships are taking place in Berlin, which was where the world record was set, and in September it is the Berlin Marathon itself, which has seen the world record broken in two consecutive years. Who can do it? Before last weekend, it would have seemed that Wanjiru was the man to beat, certainly he has talked himself up, but if last weekend has shown anything, it is that a whole new set of marathoners (particularly Kenyans) are believing that they can run a lot faster than they could before, and are doing it.
I’m going to stick my neck out a little and predict that Haile’s world record will be beaten this year. Possibly not by much, but it will fall. Sub-2:03′ is some way off, let alone sub-2:00′, but 2:03′30″ is a possibility. But I don’t know who will manage it.
All we need now is for the British marathoners to believe that they can run faster. It would be absolutely fantastic if a Brit could run under 2:10′ this year. If they want to finish in the top twenty of any top marathon they’re going to need to. I, needless to say, won’t be the runner to do that.
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